Bel Aire, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

473
FXUS63 KICT 020834
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
234 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patch freezing fog possible this morning, localized impacts
  including a few slick spots possible.

- Above normal temperatures through much of the forecast period.

- Slight chance of a few snow flurries/freezing drizzle late
  Tue/early Wed with a subtle cooldown on Wed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Currently, the upper-level ridge axis is aligned over the Rockies
with the trough lifting off the East Coast. Northwesterly flow
overhead helped warm temperatures yesterday afternoon and many saw
significant snow melt. This has lead to a shallow layer of moist air
right at the surface and as temperatures fall to meet the dewpoint
this morning, we could see patchy freezing fog develop across
the region. Guidance remains lackluster regarding major impacts
with the HREF giving 30-40% probabilities of visibility under 2
miles. Some localized impacts are expected, but conditions will
begin to improve by mid-morning as temperatures quickly warm.

For the rest of today through mid week, a much more mild pattern is
on tap with upper-level ridging attempting to build in over the
central part of the country. The warming trend will continue,
however lingering snowpack will greatly impact temperatures along
and east of I-135 for the next day or two. High temperatures today
will reach into the 40s to around 50 degrees in central Kansas.
Later today, a weak clipper system will begin to dive into the
Northern Plains dragging with it an associated surface cold front
that will push through the area on Tuesday. High temperatures on
Tuesday will not be markedly cooler, though we will begin to see
some cooler air nudge into northeastern Kansas. On Tuesday
Night/Wednesday morning, light freezing drizzle or snow flurries are
possible in our central Kansas counties. Minimal impacts are
expected at this time with only trace accumulations expected which
could lead to a few slick spots for the commute Wednesday morning.
This activity will quickly diminish and shift east as the dry, post-
frontal air filters into the area on Wednesday morning. The weak
trough will then swing across the Plains on Wednesday, settling the
cooler air over the region. Highs on Wednesday will top out near
normal in the lower to middle 40s.

For Thursday and Friday, ridging will finally succeed in building
over the region and we will see above normal temperatures across the
entire forecast area with widespread 50s to close to 60 degrees for
western and southern portions of the forecast area. A weak back-door
cold front looks to swing through the area on Saturday as a trough
digs across the Great Lakes Region, acting to suppress the warming
trend. Temperatures for the weekend will remain above average, but
will top out in the lower to middle 50s. No precipitation is
expected with this weak passing system, and only a few clouds are
anticipated for Sat/Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1038 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

The main aviation concern continues to be the potential for
patchy fog after 09Z at all sites. The latest HREF has trended
towards lower probabilities for VSBY less than 3SM (now 30-50%
areawide). Will maintain the TEMPO for reduced VSBY from 09-13Z
but coverage of fog remains quite uncertain. Otherwise, light
and variable winds will prevail through much of the period. A
weak cold front will shift winds to the northwest at RSL and GBD
with a few gusts as high as 20 kt during the mid to late
afternoon hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...BRF